Letter to Obama: Leave Afghanistan, Avoid Vietnam

Veteren US foreign policy consultant, William R. Polk, tells Obama how it is in Afghanistan and Pakistan in his open letter.

In the Kennedy administration, William was the member of the Policy Planning Council responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia and has considerable experience on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

On the deployment of further troops in Afghanistan …

“According to press accounts, you are being told that America can win the war against the Taliban by employing overwhelming military power. Just like President Johnson's generals, yours keep asking for more troops. You are also being told that we can multiply our power with counterinsurgency tactics. Having made a detailed study (laid out in my book Violent Politics) of a dozen insurgencies, ranging from the American Revolution to Afghanistan, and fought by the British, French, Germans and Russians in America, Europe, Africa and Asia, I doubt that you are being well advised.”

On tackling insurgency – a lesson from history

“What actually brought all the insurgencies, including the one in Vietnam, to a halt was the withdrawal of the foreigners.”

On India, Pakistan, Kashmir …

“In shorthand terms, Kashmir is the Palestine of Central/South Asia.”

On winning the war in Afghanistan …

“Afghanistan has always baffled foreign invaders. After three attempts from 1842 to 1919 to rule it, the British gave up; at the end of a decade of costly war, the Russians did as well. Neither understood the complex social and political makeup of the country. … the Russians won all the battles but lost the war. Afghanistan became the graveyard of the Soviet Union.”

Defeating the Taliban?

“But as insurgents, the Taliban remain formidable foes. Our chances of defeating them are poor.”

Dealing with Al-Qaeda …

“Regarding Al Qaeda, what is important to US security is not capturing Osama bin Laden but disabling him. That is achievable. Here's how: he now enjoys the protection of the Pashtuns. Melmastia is a sacred obligation, but the Pashtunwali is limited. Osama's Pashtun hosts can insist, with honor, on his stopping actions that endanger them. That could be a key element in a truce that either we or, preferably, Pakistan makes with the Taliban. From that necessary first step, we can move toward dealing with the motivations of the disparate components of Al Qaeda. Since terrorist attacks can be mounted from many places, the only effective long-term defense against them is to deal with their causes.”

The drug trade …

“We cannot expect any Afghan government to solve our problem, but if we leave, the Taliban would probably again combat the drug trade, as they did in the 1990s.”

In conclusion …

“as long as we are there, the war will continue, with disastrous consequences for all the things you want to do and we Americans need you to do. We must not follow Britain and Russia into Afghanistan's quicksand.”

Obama and Brown - heed these words or they'll come back to haunt you.